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From The Blog

Why Top Gun 3 Won’t Happen (In My Opinion)

Top Gun turns 40 today (May 13th 2026) and most of us live in a world of hope and nostalgia. I’m one of them. You probably are too. You read it all of the time in the comments sections of social media posts about yesteryear and how some people want to go back to another time in their lives. But realistically do you want to go back to dial up internet and no streaming services? Do you want to have less access to technology? Do you want to go back to having no Amazon next day delivery?

We all recall certain memories that we cling to – that’s what nostalgia is to me, short moments in time that make us smile through memory recollection. Playing Sonic 1 on the Megadrive in 1991 doesn’t want to make me go back to 1991 – but it does make me smile. As recently as 2022, Top Gun: Maverick was also one of those moments for me and $1.5B worth of moments to some of you.

Those of a certain age remember 1986, the 80s, the young-guns of Hollywood and VHS. What were you doing back then? For me I was on my BMX hitting jumps with friends or playing computer games and renting Jackie Chan movies from the corner shop. For a lot of us in the North East we were discovering the Metro Centre for the first time. From a movie perspective, Top Gun was peak 80s for a lot of people.

The flightpath to this sequel wasn’t an easy one though. As early as 1987 Paramount Pictures wanted a sequel but Tom Cruise had other ideas about his movie trajectory — favouring diversity and creative exploration over jumping straight into a sequel. Here is a short history of the attempts to get Top Gun 2 off the ground.

Development Timeline

2010

  • Jerry Bruckheimer (Producer) confirms early discussions about a sequel to Top Gun.

  • The U.S. Navy’s increasing drone warfare becomes part of the conceptual direction.

2012

  • Original director Tony Scott dies (suicide).

  • The sequel is temporarily thrown into uncertainty.

2013–2015

  • Tom Cruise recommits to the project.

  • Writers and concepts are reworked multiple times.

  • The film gradually shifts toward a story about aging pilots versus automation.

2017

  • Joseph Kosinski is officially hired to direct.

  • Paramount announces a release date of July 12, 2019.

Production & Shooting Timeline

May 2018

  • Principal photography officially begins (Tom Cruise is 55).

  • Tom Cruise posts the famous “Feel the need” photo on day one of filming.

August 2018

  • Paramount delays the release from July 2019 to June 26, 2020.

  • Reason: additional time needed for the extremely complicated flight sequences and aerial cinematography.

April–June 2019

  • Principal photography wraps.

2020 Covid

Release & Impact

May 2022

  • Premieres at CinemaCon in April.

  • Worldwide theatrical release on May 27, 2022.

Box Office

  • Earns roughly $1.5 billion worldwide.

  • Becomes the biggest hit of Tom Cruise’s career.

  • Receives 6 Oscar nominations and wins Best Sound.

  • Everyone turned out to go back to the cinema after lockdown to feel the need for speed, for joy, for good times and — nostalgia.

Missions Accepted

January 14th, 2019 “Missions Accepted” was Tweeted by Writer / Director Christopher McQuarrie referring to the soon to start back-to back filming of Mission Impossible 7 and 8 which were scheduled for a May 2021 and May 2022 release.

With no sight of something called ‘Covid’ – the plan was for Tom Cruise to bullseye summer 2020, ’21 and ’22 with 3 huge movies. Mission 7 landed May 2023 and with the writers strike killing everything creative, Mission 8 was delayed until May 2025 – at which point Tom Cruise is about to turn 63. He was 55 when filming began on Maverick. Remember, he turns 64 on July 3rd 2026.

Negative Ghost Rider The Pattern Is Full

You can trawl through social media and the internet and you’ll see countless non committal interviews with Maverick cast members, production team members or studio executives all talking about ‘hope’ and how ideas are being ‘explored’ for Top Gun 3 immediately after the successful launch of Maverick and also through the following years until present day.

This is just marketing hype for clicks and attention which ultimately help the shareholders – and that’s what it’s about, keeping eyes and interest on a studio for a return on investment and a share price. If you’re not clicking, not curious or not asking questions about Top Gun 3 then it just fades away. The same is true for myself (and possibly you) – if I’m not creating content the algorithm flushes me down the toilet.

Currently (May 2026) Tom Cruise has no new films in production. And remember, production is different to development. As of right now I’m personally working on 3 projects – that’s actually working on them, not hyping up nonsense for desperate attention. I have 7 new projects confirmed and are starting soon. Confirmed. Signed off. Happening.

Tom Cruise has a film due out in October called Digger – and that’s it.

His long planned movie in outer space was killed officially due to budget reasons but insiders insist that Tom Cruise’s political views say he backed out of the project due to President Trump having financial decision making involvement.

A movie called ‘Deeper’ with Ana de Armas has also been suspended indefinitely due to budget concerns.

Mission Impossible 8 – Dead Reckoning Part 2 was renamed Final Reckoning and pretty much ended that franchise in May 2025.

Top Gun 3 does not have a director. That’s a pretty important element. The director helps to shape the entire story as well as all of the other work they do. If you recall above, Joseph Kosinski was attached (in 2017) a year before shooting. He is currently committed to shooting Miami Vice ’85 which starts filming in June for a summer 2027 release. So he is out. In summer 2027 Cruise is about to turn 65.

Tom Cruise is currently not on the set of a single ‘Tom Cruise’ movie. Bad times.

Writing Cheques His Body Can’t Cash

Honestly, I’m a huge Tom Cruise fan (the actor). But Maverick was a perfect movie for the character of Pete Mitchell. He got the girl, crushed his demons, built a team, proved his worth, won the fight and literally flew off into the sunset (with the girl!). Why on earth would anyone want anymore? It had rave reviews from critics, and you and I left the movie theatre very satisfied.

Are you all crazy that you think he can outdo himself 10 years on from Maverick? The G-Forces he pulled in Maverick were real and they were hard! If you go and watch the making of the Bi-Plane scene in Mission Impossible 8 (on the physical disc or YouTube) you can see him come off the plane physically drained – absolutely battered. He even mutters “I’m just exhausted”. That scene was filmed in March 2022 – when he was 59. Remember, he turns 65 in July this year.

It’s also not realistic to assume that Pete Mitchell is still a pilot in the Navy at an advanced age (and I’ll agree the two movies never assume his age directly, but Tom Cruise now LOOKS in his 60s). It was even joked about in Maverick that he was a fossil and a relic by two characters. Having him back in a jet for Top Gun 3 is how we all looked at Muhammad Ali getting back in the ring for one more fight, or Hulk Hogan limping about near the end trying for just one more leg drop brother! It’s sad to see, and ruins the nostalgia of when they were in their prime.

The Navy has been very clear with Tom Cruise that they can’t allow him to actually fly an F-18 or any other ‘in service’ jet. So what would he hope to give an audience beyond what we have already seen? But let me pay fan service to you for just a moment. Let’s say it’s a green light and it starts principle photography in 2027 when he turns 65. The earliest we can get it on the screen is summer 2028. Tom Cruise turns 66 in 2028 – 4 years off turning 70. Is that what audiences want to see? A much older man hanging on for dear life for one more flight when Maverick was so perfect? It’s not going to happen.

“But hold on (I hear you cry)…who said he has to fly the plane? Perhaps he’s the lead instructor now on the ground?”. Who on earth wants to see that. It’s like Stallone making Rambo 6 but this time he’s in it for 2 minutes teaching his long lost nephew how to fire a bow and arrow. Audiences would not be happy and reviews would tank. The perfect ending of Maverick would now by tarnished. We would wish he hadn’t made Top Gun 3.

Talk To Me Tom

In case you think I’m not a true fan let me tell you I am. I already have IMAX tickets to see Top Gun and Maverick this week. I own them both on 4K. In October 2022 I bought a brand new 65″ tv just for the 4K physical release. I’ve seen Maverick 14 times at the cinema, once outdoors at Herrington Park and 3 times in concert. One of those times was on the evening at The Royal Albert Hall after I had been allowed to photograph The Royal Philharmonic Orchestra that morning as they rehearsed.

Sometimes all we have are nostalgia and good memories to help us recollect some fond moments in our lives.  And sometimes that’s all we need.

Top Gun 3 is not going to happen. He’s too old. The story will not be something we want to see. Mission 7 and 8 were two of the most expensive movies ever made and didn’t return huge numbers. His ‘Deeper’ film has been shelved for budget reasons. The studio will have you believe Top Gun 3 is in development but that means absolutely nothing in the long run.

This project has crashed and burned — trust me.

I hope you get to relive the magic on the big screen, and if you’re a first timer you’re sure to be blown away. Grab your popcorn and spend a few hours smiling.

If you have any feedback or want to chat about this article please make a comment or get in touch direct.

Lee 🫡

*No AI or LLM were used to write this.  This is my work from my 60 words a minute touch-typing digits.

Lee Axon